CONWAY, Ark. (October 31,
2017) – Dr. T.D. “Tom” Stanley, the Julia Mobley Professor of Economics,
Emeritus, gave an invited keynote, “Recent developments: Should we WAAP
economics’ low power and exaggerated results?” October 13 at Zeppelin
University in Friedrichshafen, Germany, as part of the 11th annual MAER-Net Colloquium. Hendrix College hosted a similar MAER-Net
Colloquium in 2016.
Zeppelin University is
similar to Hendrix in size, population of high-ability, motivated students, and
educational philosophy. “No other institution of higher education in Germany
aspires to our liberal arts educational goals and ideals,” Stanley said. “It is
wonderful to see our educational philosophy prosper around the world.”
Alongside Professor Jarko
Fidrmuc, Stanley co-instructs a class on meta-analysis at Zeppelin
University.
Stanley also has co-authored
a recently published paper, “The power of bias in economics research,” as part of The Economic Journal’s Feature, “The Confidence Crisis in Science.”
The paper, published in the journal’s
October 2017 issue, is the first large-scale study of the bias, statistical
power, and hence the scientific credibility of economics. A survey of 64,076
economic estimates from 159 areas of research and 6,700 empirical studies finds
that the median statistical power is 18 percent or less. “That is, the
probability that an empirical economic investigation is able to identify what
it seeks is usually 18 percent, or lower,” Stanley said.
The survey also identifies
widespread bias. Typically, reported economic effects are inflated by 100
percent, with one-third inflated by a factor of four or more. “In other words,
over half of economic research results are reported to be twice as large as
they actually are, and one-third are exaggerated to be four times too big,”
Stanley said. Lastly, 90 percent of economics findings are under-powered (relative
to the widely accepted convention that 80 percent defines adequate power) for
half of these areas of economics research.
About
Hendrix College
A private liberal arts
college in Conway, Arkansas, Hendrix College consistently earns recognition as
one of the country’s leading liberal arts institutions, and is featured in Colleges That Change Lives: 40 Schools That
Will Change the Way You Think About Colleges. Its academic quality and
rigor, innovation, and value have established Hendrix as a fixture in numerous
college guides, lists, and rankings. Founded in 1876, Hendrix has been
affiliated with the United Methodist Church since 1884. To learn more, visit www.hendrix.edu.